Publications

North Caucasus in the new decade: expectations and reality (13 March 2012: 185kb)

Realities observed in the Northern Caucasus in 2011 and the beginning of 2012 show that it is essential to carefully review and retune orientations in order to adjust strategy and elaborate adequate policy measures to improve the situation in the region. Things that seemed realistic and hopeful 1,5-2 years ago have now proved unsustainable. An almost unanimous opinion of experts that we interviewed in different republics of the Northern Caucasus and our own fieldwork notes show that the scheme that may be called “investments in return for loyalty” that the federal centre was putting the main stake on since the moment of creation of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD), has failed to secure a positive response in the region...

This report has been prepared within the framework of the project “Humanitarian Dialogue for Human Security in the North Caucasus” (HDNC) implemented since 2006. It reflects the views of the authors and does not represent an official position of HDNC partner-organisations. This report may be quoted under condition of making a reference to the source. Re-publishing and dissemination of the report is not permitted without prior consent of FEWER Eurasia.

Main Human Security Risks and Dialogue Perspectives. April-October 2011 (9 November 2011: 162kb)

Political developments and changes at the federal level that took place in Russia in the last 6 months will have a serious impact on the current social processes in general and on the human security situation in the North Caucasus, in particular. Expected return of Vladimir Putin to the position of the President of Russia and expected further strengthening of the “vertical” power structure may lead to greater social polarization in the republics of Chechnya, Daghestan, and Ingushetia. It may also stimulate consolidation of the small but irreconcilable groups of supporters of the alternative Islamic statehood for the entire North Caucasus. The probability of such negative developments is increased against the backdrop of unrealised public expectations for visible improvement of the situation in the region that have lately been raised. In spite of some public enthusiasm regarding the implementation of the North Caucasus development Strategy-2025 and investments made into 2014 Olympics in the South Federal District, as well as the reform process in the Ministry of Interior and on-going fight against corruption, all these measures have failed to increase the overall level of social accord and trust towards the authorities.

This report has been prepared within the framework of the project “Humanitarian Dialogue for Human Security in the North Caucasus” (HDNC) implemented jointly by the Peace Mission of General Lebed (Pyatigorsk), swisspeace (Bern), and FEWER Eurasia (Moscow) since 2006. It reflects the views of the authors and does not represent an official position of HDNC partner-organisations. This report may be quoted under condition of making a reference to the source. Re-publishing and dissemination of the report is not permitted without prior consent of FEWER Eurasia. .

Human Security Situation in the North Caucasus: Key Trends and Developments (18 October 2010: 86kb)

During the period from May to September 2010 the human security situation in the North Caucasus has grown more tense against the backdrop of intensifying violence. A number of large-scale terrorist acts were committed in the region during this period, such as the explosion in the center of Pyatigorsk on August 17, the bomb attack at Baksan hydroelectric power plant in Kabardino-Balkaria on July 21, and the explosion at Vladikavkaz market on September 9. The continuing volatility in the region has been aggravated by repeated attempted murders of regional officials including republican ministers (attempted murder of Bekmurza Bekmurzaev, Minister of National Policy, Religious Affairs and External Affairs of Daghestan on September 4).

Many analysts report a certain progress in efforts aimed at curbing the activities of illegal armed groups. Its main evidence is the elimination of a number of authoritative and symbolic extremist leaders, such as Magomedali Vagabov (killed during a special operation in Daghestan on August 21), and Ilez Gardanov (killed in Ingushetia on August 23). However, so far these successful operations failed to reduce the scale of the militants’ attacks in general.

The Human Security report is produced within the framework of the ‘Humanitarian Dialogue for Human Security in the North Caucasus’ project implemented by swisspeace, FEWER Eurasia and PMGL (Peace Mission of General Lebed) since 2006. The analysis draw on a range of open sources, as well as local and international expertise. This report may be drawn on and reproduced freely subject to the accreditation of FEWER and information on reproduction sent to the FEWER Eurasia office at office@fewer-eurasia.ru

Concluding Document of HDNC Roundtable 'Mechanisms for the Search for Missing Persons and Psychosocial Rehabilitation in the North Caucasus' (17 December 2009: 51kb)

The Roundtable was held on 4-6 November 2009 in La Neuveville, Switzerland.

Human Security Situation in the North Caucasus: Key Trends and Developments. October 2009 (30 October 2009: 91kb)

Human Security Trends Update

North Caucasus: Chechnya, Daghestan, and Ingushetia (October 2009)

Strategic Conflict Assessment. North Caucasus 2009 (26 June 2009: 1216kb)

The report "Strategic Conflict Assessment. North Caucasus 2009" is prepared by INCAS Consulting and commissioned by Conflict Prevention Pool (CPP, UK). The report contains an analysis of the current processes in the field of human security, governance and economic development in the North Caucasus, as well as possible scenarios and recommendations on raising effectiveness of conflict prevention and development measures.

Recommendations On Setting up an Efficient System of Search for the Missing Persons in the Northern Caucasus (29 October 2008: 67kb)

The recommendations have been endorsed by the participants of the roundtable ’The of humanitarian dialogue between authorities and civil society in the human security development and extremism prevention in the North Caucasus. Prevention of abductions, search for the missing people and rehabilitation of the conflict victims’ for government institutions and public organization of Russian Federation.

The roundtable was organized in the framework of the project ‘Humanitarian Dialogue on Strengthening Human Security n Chechnya’ implemented by FEWER-Eurasia in partnership with Peace Mission of General Lebed (Russia) and swisspeace (Switzerland).

Programme of Action: Development and Stability in the North Caucasus (11 June 2006: 345kb)

The Programme of Action is a follow-up to the Strategic Reconstruction and Development Assessment: North Caucasus (SRDA) study. The Programme of Action covers key areas and priorities for Russian and international co-operation on promoting development and stability in the North Caucasus.

Strategic Reconstruction and Development Assessment - North Caucasus (16 January 2006: 1765kb)

This study was conducted in partnership with INCAS Consulting (formerly Kardos & Nyheim, London) and PMGL (Peace Mission of General Lebed, Pyatigorsk) to obtain a better understanding of the situation in the North Caucasus for all actors with an interest in socio-economic recovery and stabilisation in the region. The study was commissioned by UK government's Global Conflict Prevention Pool (GCPP) in 2005.

FAST Updates

FAST Updates are short analytical reports released on a semi-annual basis on selected regions monitored by FAST program. The Updates provide analysis of the key events and developments on the ground and also consider the likely peace and conflict developments in the near future. Intentionally kept short, FAST Updates do not exceed more than five pages of text. Each page depicts a graph (tension barometers) displaying cooperative and conflictive developments that are analyzed by international FAST experts on the basis of specific indicators.

FAST Special Updates have the same structure as regular Updates and are released whenever major changes occur in one of the countries or regions under scrutiny.

2008

Chechnya

Chechnya / Russian Federation - January 2008 (1 March 2008: 308kb)

Kabardin-Balkar Republic

Kabardin-Balkar Republic - 2007 (1 March 2008: 248kb)

2007

Chechnya

Chechnya / Russian Federation - March 2007 (20 June 2007: 270kb)

Chechnya / Russian Federation - April-May 2007 (6 August 2007: 320kb)

Dagestan

Dagestan / Russian Federation - March 2007 (20 June 2007: 294kb)

Dagestan / Russian Federation - April-May 2007 (19 July 2007: 299kb)

Rostov Region